| Abstract |
This article examines how long-term shifts in voter alignments can contribute to democratic backsliding. Focusing on Turkey between 1990 and 2023, a period marked by significant political transformation, the study shows how electoral competition has increasingly centered around a deepening cultural divide. Using survey data from the World Values Survey and Turkish Election Studies, it finds that religiosity and ideological self-placement have become more powerful and polarized predictors of vote choice over time. This consolidation of a stable, identity-based cleavage has reinforced partisan loyalties and reduced electoral volatility, helping to insulate dominant parties from democratic accountability. The Turkish case illustrates a broader dynamic: as political conflict becomes organized around entrenched cultural divisions, democratic erosion can unfold not only through institutional collapse but also through the hardening of electoral alignments that limit meaningful political change. |