| Title | Climate Change and Unemployment Seasonality: Evidence from US Counties (with Similan Rujiwattanapong) |
| Date | May 20, 2025 (Tuesday) 10:40-12:10 |
| Location | Hybrid (Discussion room, 12th floor of Building 3) |
| Abstract | Historically, unemployment peaks in the first and third quarters---the arrival of cold winters and hot summers. This paper relates non-seasonally adjusted unemployment fluctuations to temperature shocks and explores the impact of climate change on unemployment seasonality. Combining granular daily weather across US counties with monthly unemployment rates over the period 1987-2019, we find that extreme temperature days fuel unemployment by freezing hiring and triggering layoffs, especially in heat-sensitive sectors. Alarmingly, we find that climate change increases unemployment insurance claims and recipients. Accelerated warming in the coming decades will propagate unemployment seasonality through milder winters and harsher summers. |
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| Note | Register link for Zoom participation: https://list-waseda-jp.zoom.us/meeting/register/UCTAYxuUQheKXpINSv4yDg |