| Abstract |
This paper examines the causal effects of individuals' expectations regarding labor replacement by generative AI (GenAI) on macroeconomic outlooks and personal behaviors. By conducting an online survey combined with a randomized experiment in the U.S. and Japan, we obtain three key findings.
First, in Japan, expectations of a higher labor replacement ratio by GenAI lead to increased inflation expectations. In contrast, in the U.S., a higher labor replacement ratio has no significant average effect on expectations regarding inflation or other key macroeconomic indicators.
Second, in the U.S., expectations of a higher labor replacement ratio by GenAI strengthen the short-term outlook for weaker labor demand and fewer skills required for jobs, particularly among highly educated respondents. In the long term, respondents in creative jobs expect lower labor demand due to a higher replacement by GenAI in the economy. In addition, respondents with higher education levels anticipate lower investment by firms due to a higher replacement ratio, while those with lower education levels expect higher investment. Finally, while a higher replacement ratio increases the willingness to use GenAI in Japanese workplaces, it weakly discourages the willingness to learn to use GenAI in the U.S. |