| Abstract |
This study analyzes Yield Curve Control (YCC) in Japan, examining both purchase and announcement effects using constructed bond issue level data and macrofinance shadow rate term structure models. It finds that asset purchases under YCC fixed-rate operations specifically affect the yields of targeted securities, with minimal impact on broader market dynamics. In contrast, it identifies significant announcement effects, highlighting the distinct impact of YCC compared to other unconventional monetary policies. Based on our shadow rate analysis, we find that YCC, with stably large bond holdings by the BOJ since its introduction in 2016 until March 2022, contributed to over a third of the policy impact. Furthermore, these policies have been effective in raising output and inflation.
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This study investigates how gamblers change their gambling and consumption behaviors after they receive gambling wins. We use novel bank transaction data in Japan, which contain information on both gambling bets and wins on public horse races with clear time flows. The estimation results show a positive marginal propensity to gamble (MPG) and consume (MPC) on impact, which however disappear in 12 weeks. While a considerable heterogeneity among gamblers exists in terms of gambling intensity, the MPG and MPC are stable, and light gamblers are insignificantly different from non-gamblers in the MPC to the government transfer in 2020. The liquidity constraint matters for the MPC, but not the MPG. Further, we find big win effects on consumption, but not on bets, as well as the opposite of the loss chasing effect: gamblers increase bets when they win in net. |